{"id":3211,"date":"2020-07-31T08:45:01","date_gmt":"2020-07-31T08:45:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/?p=3211"},"modified":"2020-08-01T17:45:43","modified_gmt":"2020-08-01T17:45:43","slug":"aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/en\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/","title":{"rendered":"On approximating the ruin probability when claim severity distribution is lognormal - Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3211\" class=\"elementor elementor-3211\" data-elementor-settings=\"[]\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-section-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-653aa942 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"653aa942\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-779c2705\" data-id=\"779c2705\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-6ddddf1d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6ddddf1d\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-49d776a2\" data-id=\"49d776a2\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3a6d10fa elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3a6d10fa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>Author: Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru)<br \/>Vol. 1 \u2022 No. 1 \u2022 November 2016<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-6d245bd9\" data-id=\"6d245bd9\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6d889061 elementor-position-right elementor-view-default elementor-vertical-align-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-box\" data-id=\"6d889061\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-icon elementor-animation-\" href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/09_Simona-Mihaela_ABSTRACT_template-final-1-nr1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-arrow-down\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-content\">\n\t\t\t\t<h6 class=\"elementor-icon-box-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/09_Simona-Mihaela_ABSTRACT_template-final-1-nr1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\tView Abstract PDF\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/h6>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2134c280 elementor-position-right elementor-view-default elementor-vertical-align-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-box\" data-id=\"2134c280\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-icon elementor-animation-\" href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/09_Simona-Mihaela_ARTICOL__template-final-nr1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-arrow-down\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-content\">\n\t\t\t\t<h6 class=\"elementor-icon-box-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/09_Simona-Mihaela_ARTICOL__template-final-nr1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\tView Article PDF\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/h6>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7efff17e elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"7efff17e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3edc225a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3edc225a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-685913de elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"685913de\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The calculation of the probability of ruin is one of the classical problems in actuarial science, the ruin probability being a good indicator of how the insurer manages its assets and liabilities. The purpose of the paper is to illustrate and compare different infinite time ruin probability approximations, studying a heavy-tailed claim size distribution (using MTPL\u2019s line of business claims), namely the lognormal distribution. The case study highlights the results of the empirical analysis obtained by applying a set of approximation methods and also new approaches such as a simulation algorithm based on Pollaczeck-Khinchin formula and the use of the ruin probability in finite time to approximate the ruin probability in infinite time. The study is of increased significance in the following respects: (1) it can support people involved in decision-making process (such as risk managers, actuaries, company\u2019s management) to take decisions and measures regarding the long-term stability of the lines of business; (2) is an analysis that brings new empirical results in the field, being based on real and recent data from the Romanian insurance market.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-492ea433 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"492ea433\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4aec08be elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4aec08be\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Keywords<\/strong>: clasical risk model, ruin probability, methods of approximation, lognormal distribution.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e6816c4 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"6e6816c4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-510efc40 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"510efc40\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\">\n\t\t\t\t<p><strong>JEL classification<\/strong>: C60, C15, C18.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7320d9d3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-eael-creative-button\" data-id=\"7320d9d3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"eael-creative-button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t        <div class=\"eael-creative-button-wrapper\">\n\n            <a class=\"eael-creative-button eael-creative-button--default\" href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/en\/arhiva\/\" data-text=\"\">\n\n                <div class=\"creative-button-inner\">\n\n                    \n                    <span class=\"cretive-button-text\"> BACK <\/span>\n\n                                    <\/div>\n            <\/a>\n        <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Autor: Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru)Vol. 1 \u2022 Nr. 1 \u2022 Noiembrie 2016 Vizualizare Abstract PDF Vizualizare Articol PDF Abstract Calculul probabilit\u0103\u0163ii de ruin\u0103 reprezint\u0103 una dintre problemele clasice \u00een domeniul actuariatului, fiind un bun indicator al modului \u00een care asigur\u0103torul \u00ee\u015fi gestioneaz\u0103 activele \u015fi obliga\u0163iile. Prezenta lucrare \u00ee\u015fi propune ilustrarea diferitelor metode de aproximare a probabilit\u0103\u0163ii &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/en\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">On approximating the ruin probability when claim severity distribution is lognormal - Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru)<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[171],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<title>Aproximarea probabilit\u0103\u0163ii de ruin\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd distribu\u0163ia severit\u0103\u0163ii daunelor este lognormal\u0103 - Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru) - Revista de Studii Financiare<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/en\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aproximarea probabilit\u0103\u0163ii de ruin\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd distribu\u0163ia severit\u0103\u0163ii daunelor este lognormal\u0103 - Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru) - Revista de Studii Financiare\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Autor: Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru)Vol. 1 \u2022 Nr. 1 \u2022 Noiembrie 2016 Vizualizare Abstract PDF Vizualizare Articol PDF Abstract Calculul probabilit\u0103\u0163ii de ruin\u0103 reprezint\u0103 una dintre problemele clasice \u00een domeniul actuariatului, fiind un bun indicator al modului \u00een care asigur\u0103torul \u00ee\u015fi gestioneaz\u0103 activele \u015fi obliga\u0163iile. Prezenta lucrare \u00ee\u015fi propune ilustrarea diferitelor metode de aproximare a probabilit\u0103\u0163ii &hellip; Aproximarea probabilit\u0103\u0163ii de ruin\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd distribu\u0163ia severit\u0103\u0163ii daunelor este lognormal\u0103 &#8211; Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru) Read More &raquo;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/en\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Revista de Studii Financiare\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-31T08:45:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-08-01T17:45:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Revista ISF\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/\",\"name\":\"Revista de Studii Financiare\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/\",\"name\":\"Aproximarea probabilit\\u0103\\u0163ii de ruin\\u0103 atunci c\\u00e2nd distribu\\u0163ia severit\\u0103\\u0163ii daunelor este lognormal\\u0103 - Simona-Mihaela Iftimie (Chiru) - Revista de Studii Financiare\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-07-31T08:45:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-01T17:45:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/#\/schema\/person\/d709ae622feb4a954f2e16c530e0815a\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/2020\/07\/31\/aproximarea-probabilitatii-de-ruina-atunci-cand-distributia-severitatii-daunelor-este-lognormala-simona-mihaela-iftimie-chiru\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Prima pagin\\u0103\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/revista.isfin.ro\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Aproximarea probabilit\\u0103\\u0163ii de ruin\\u0103 atunci c\\u00e2nd distribu\\u0163ia severit\\u0103\\u0163ii daunelor este lognormal\\u0103 &#8211; 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