Modelarea riscurilor catastrofale – expunere rezidenţială şi nerezidenţială – Nicoleta Radu, Laura Elly Naghi

Catastrophic risk modeling has been an integral part of the insurance industry over the last decade, given the experience of a growing number of catastrophic events worldwide. Whether we are talking about probabilistic or deterministic models, catastrophic risk modeling shows a high degree of quality of results due to recent technological advances and a short response time. However, for certain geographical areas or certain events, there is the problem of using incorrect or incomplete data sets that can lead to corrupt, incorrect results that can mislead the true extent of the financial losses caused by natural disasters. The present paper aims to present the results of the exposure of insurable buildings in Romania following the occurrence of an earthquake based on a specialized modeling, used internationally. Despite some historical data on the non-residential fund in Romania estimated by extrapolation, the results obtained by modeling IF Elements are useful in the context of preparing a response to a similar event Vrancea 1977 at national level. The national disaster response plan that includes the financing of the insurance market, of the uninsured owners but also of the institutions of the statute can start from the estimates made in the present research. The research can be detailed and validated by using other modeling products or by increasing the quality of input data used (related to residential exposure, but especially non-residential) in Romania.